全國腫瘤防治研究辦公室、國家腫瘤登記中心陳萬青主任帶領其團隊開展的一項我國癌症患病率的研究，其結果最近在線發表在歐洲的Cancer Letters雜誌，係我國首次發布我國居民癌症患病數據。結果顯示，我國5年內診斷的癌症患者目前尚存活的人數估計為749萬，其中男性患者368萬，女性患者381萬。女性乳腺癌患者最多，達102萬，其次是結直腸癌，肺癌，胃癌和食管癌，這5個常見癌症占總數的56.1%。城市中每10萬人中就有666個人5年中診斷為癌症，這個數字在農村是10萬分之440。
以往癌症負擔經常用到的是癌症發病率。癌症發病率一般用作描述癌症的分布特征，通過比較不同人群的發病率來幫助確定可能的病因，探討發病因素，提出病因假說，評價防治措施的效果。癌症患病率，也稱現患率，是指某特定時間內總人口中癌症新舊病例之和所占的比例。對慢性病進行現況調查，患病率是較常用的指標。患病率通常用來表示疾病的發生或流行情況，可為醫療設施規劃，估計醫院床位周轉，衛生設施及人力的需要量，醫療質量的評估和醫療費用的投入等提供科學的依據。
我國以人群為基礎的腫瘤監測係統逐步完善，越來越多的數據結果在癌症控製政策製定和癌症研究中發揮著重要作用。此次研究使用了我國最新的177個腫瘤登記點的發病數據和生存率數據，通過模型計算得到較為準確的現患情況。
National estimates of cancer prevalence in China, 2011
Rongshou Zheng Hongmei Zeng Siwei Zhang Tianhui Chen Wanqing Chen
Published Online: October 09, 2015
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canlet.2015.10.003
Highlights
The first systematic estimation of cancer prevalence in China.
We estimated that about 7.49 million persons alive in China had received a diagnosis of cancer within the previous five years in 2011.
Breast cancer in females and stomach cancer in males were the two most prevalent malignant diseases.
The cancer burdens showed difference between urban areas and rural areas in China.
Abstract
Objective
Little is known about nationwide cancer prevalence in China. This paper aimed at assessing5-year cancer prevalence in China for 25 major cancers.
Materials and methods
Incidence data were estimated using data from 177 cancer registries and covering 175 million populations. Survival data from 17 cancer registries diagnosed during 2003-2005 and followed until31December2010.Standardizedprotocols for data collection and validation were adopted. Cancer prevalence for 25 major sites was estimated from year-specific incidence rates and survival probabilities according to standardized formula.
Results
Estimated 5-year prevalence for all cancers combined in 2011 in China was 7.49 million (3.68 million for men and 3.81 million for women). Cancer prevalence estimates for 5-year varied by cancer sites, ranging from 11.9 thousands for testicular cancer to 1.02 million for women breast cancer. Those most prevalent five cancers (breast, colorectal, lung stomach and esophageal cancers) covered 56.1% of cancer burden in China. The proportion for 5-year prevalence was higher in urban areas compared to rural areas (666 per 100,000 versus 440 per 100,000), while cancer prevalence estimates were higher for women compared to men, with the men/women ratio of 5-year cancer prevalence reaching 0.96.
Conclusions
This paper provides the first systematic analysis on 5-year cancer prevalence for 25 major cancers in China in 2011, which may serve as a baseline for assessment of the overall effectiveness of cancer health care. The huge number of cancer survivors requires resource allocation to improve health care programs and primary prevention, especially in rural areas.
